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In this regard, Hu Zhaoguang, vice president of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, said in an exclusive interview with reporters that the current lack of electricity in some areas is mainly due to lack of electricity, structural shortage of electricity, and regional shortage of electricity. Accelerating the rationalization of the price of coal and electricity and increasing the construction of power transmission across regions is the only way to fundamentally avoid the â€œelectricity shortageâ€.
There is no shortage of "electricity shortage"
The reasons for the lack of electricity this year are mainly due to the slow transition of power development mode, over-dependence on energy and resource allocation, and insufficient capacity for cross-regional transmission of power grids. Reporter: At the beginning of 2010, many regions will fall into the â€œelectricity shortageâ€ early. What is your opinion on this? ?
Hu Zhaoguang: Since the beginning of this year, the scope of power shortage in our country has further expanded. In January, there were 20 provincial power grids in the country that experienced a tight supply and demand situation. The power gap was as high as 30 million kilowatts, which was characterized by â€œearly time and wide rangeâ€. However, during the summer peak season, the power gap is still about 30 million kilowatts, and areas with electricity shortages are mainly concentrated in regions with relatively short primary energy resources such as East China, Central China, North China, and China Southern Power Grid; Surplus.
This year's power shortage is essentially different from the power shortage in 2003-2005. The main reason for the lack of electricity in the previous round was the severe lag in power grid construction; the total installed capacity of the country during the period of power shortage was not short of this year. The deep-seated reasons are mainly due to the slow transition of power development mode and the excessive dependence of energy and resource allocation on coal transportation. Inadequate transmission capacity of the power grid across the region, coal price mechanism is not smooth, uneven distribution of water in time and space has intensified the tension situation of power supply and demand.
China's electricity consumption is mainly concentrated in the eastern and central regions, and this feature will not fundamentally change in the future. In 2010, the proportion of electricity consumed in the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions accounted for 50.0:19.3:23.5:7.2, while the proportion of electricity consumed in the central and eastern regions reached 69.3%. The next 10 years will be a crucial period for Chinaâ€™s comprehensive construction of a well-off society. Industrialization and urbanization will continue to accelerate. Even considering the constraints of total energy consumption control and energy-saving and emission reduction targets, Chinaâ€™s electricity demand will continue to grow rapidly. With the implementation of the regional development strategy, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the western region will be faster than the national average, but the adjustment and transfer of industrial structure is a long-term process. According to our forecast, the proportion of electricity consumption in the central and eastern regions in 2020 and 2030 accounted for 65.9% and 63.8% of the country respectively. The central and eastern regions will continue to be the regions with the most concentrated electricity load in China for a long period of time.
Looking at the long-term economic development process in our country, there are power shortages in most years.
Since 2000, Chinaâ€™s economy has entered a new round of growth cycles characterized by â€œheavy industrializationâ€. The demand for electricity has grown rapidly, and the construction of electricity in the early period of the Tenth Five-Year Plan has been lagging behind. The first is the lack of power supply. From 2002 to 2004, the average annual growth rate of electricity usage in the country was 14%, while the installed capacity only increased by 9%. The second is the lack of power grid investment. China's power supply and grid investment ratio is 6:4, which is far below the level of 4:6 in most foreign countries. Lagging power construction led to a large-scale and long-term power supply and demand situation in the country from 2003 to 2005. The power gap is as high as 35 million kilowatts, accounting for about 10% of the maximum load of the year. The average utilization hours of thermal power equipment in the country is more than 5,700 hours. Up to 5,991 hours in 2004.
After 2006, the annual new installed capacity of the country is more than 90 million kilowatts, and the total installed capacity of power generation basically meets the power demand. However, due to the construction of power grids lagging behind power supply construction for many years, especially the construction of cross-regional power grids has been seriously lagging behind, and coal power supply has been added. Impacts of uncertainties such as water from the reservoir, climate, and the like have resulted in recurring power supply shortages.
The large-scale cross-regional power grid is imperative. In the future, the scale of Chinaâ€™s â€œWest-to-East Power Transmission and North-to-South Power Transmissionâ€ will be greatly improved. Coal, electricity, hydropower, wind power, and solar power will all require large-scale long-distance delivery. Reporters: In your opinion In order to ease the ongoing power shortage in the central and eastern regions, what characteristics will China's power supply structure take in the future?
Hu Zhaoguang: From the perspective of power supply structure, the overall characteristics of China's energy resources are rich coal, lack of oil, and low gas, which determine that coal power plays an absolute dominant role in China's power supply. In 2010, China's coal power installed capacity accounted for 68% of the country's total installed capacity, coal power generation accounted for 77% of the country's total electricity generation. From the perspective of the power supply structure, China's cross-regional transmission capacity is about 50 million kilowatts, which only accounts for 8% of the country's largest load, and it is difficult to meet the needs of the nationwide optimization of energy resources.
China's power generation energy resources are concentrated in the western and northern regions. In order to meet the rapid growth of power demand in China in the future, we must accelerate the large-scale development of energy resources in the western and northern regions. The National "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" Outline promulgated this year clearly states: "We will make overall plans for the layout and construction of energy development in the country, and build five comprehensive energy bases in Shanxi, the Ordos Basin, the eastern part of Inner Mongolia, the Southwest, and Xinjiang."
For a long time, coal-fired power will always be the main power source of China, and it is expected that by 2030 China's coal-fired power capacity will double in 2010. For a long time, the coal-electricity layout in our country has been dominated by local balance, which has led to repeated occurrence of coal and electricity transportation tensions, which has become a chronic problem that has long plagued China's energy security supply, and has seriously affected the healthy economic and social development. In order to change this unscientific approach to development, the â€œNational Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€ clearly stated: â€œImprove the level of energy in-situ processing and conversion, reduce the pressure on large-scale long-distance transmission of primary energy,â€ and â€œrely on the coal in the west and the north. The base will build a number of large pit coal-electric power bases.â€ Research shows that in the future, China should speed up the optimization of new coal power deployments, speed up the construction of large-scale coal and electricity bases in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Mengning, and reduce the large-scale long-distance transmission of coal. To solve the problem of coal and electricity transportation.
The southwest region is the region with the most abundant hydropower resources in China. The amount of technology that can be exploited accounts for two-thirds of the country's total, and the hydraulic resources are characterized by bases and basins. The level of hydropower development in the southwest is relatively low. As of the end of 2010, the development and utilization rate is only 18.3%, which is the main area for hydropower development in the future. Due to the low level of local electric power load, southwest hydropower must be transported long distances to the mid-east region after meeting local electricity demand.
China's wind energy resources are concentrated in the "Three North" and eastern coastal areas. According to the development model of â€œdeveloping wind power and integrating into large power gridsâ€, the National Energy Administration plans to construct 8 million-kilowatt wind power bases in Gansu Province, including Jiuquan, Xinjiang, Hami, Mengxi, Mengdong, Hebei, Jilin, Shandong and Jiangsu. In these wind power bases, except for Shandong and Jiangsu, the other six wind power bases are far away from the load center, and the local wind power consumption capacity is limited, and it is necessary to solve the problem of wind power utilization through long-distance transmission. In addition, China's solar power generation will also enter a stage of rapid development in the future. According to the distribution characteristics of solar energy resources, the focus of solar power generation in China in the future is mainly in western and northern regions such as Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang, and it is also facing the problem of large-scale delivery.
According to our research, by 2020, the scale of hydropower export in southwest China will reach 80 million kilowatts or more, the scale of outflow of six wind power bases in the â€œthree northsâ€ will exceed 66 million kilowatts, and the scale of coal and electricity delivery in the western and northern regions will reach 2.6. Billion kilowatts, cross-regional transmission capacity accounts for about 30% of the country's largest load, and the transmission distance is between 1000-3500 kilometers.
Therefore, in the future, the scale of â€œWest-to-East Power Transmission and North-to-South Power Transmissionâ€ in China will be greatly improved. Coal-fired power, hydropower, wind power, and solar power generation will all require large-scale long-distance delivery. Traditional 500-kilovolt AC-DC power transmission will be difficult to satisfy. Demand for transportation and the development of higher-level trans-regional large-scale power grids are imperative.
UHV has become the preferred choice for building a strong smart grid with UHV as the backbone grid, facilitating the intensive development of large coal-fired power stations, large hydropower stations, large nuclear power stations, and large-scale renewable energy bases, which can maximize the trans-provincial trans-provincial transmission capacity and Energy resources preparation capabilities.
Reporter: So what kind of technical means do you think China should adopt to develop a higher-level cross-region grid?
Hu Zhaoguang: In the future, China's trans-regional power transmission scale is large and distant. Traditional 300KV AC/DC power transmission is difficult to meet the demand, and higher-voltage power grids are needed to support the electricity supply and demand structure of China in the future. In the current situation that UHV AC and DC transmission technologies have matured, China should accelerate the construction of UHV power grids to adapt to China's future energy supply and demand pattern and cross-regional transmission needs.
From the perspective of the different functions of AC and DC, UHV AC is positioned in the construction of main grids and power transmission across large areas. UHV DC is located at large-scale energy bases for long-distance and large-capacity transmission. Since the AC has a network function, it can flexibly collect, transport, and distribute power, which is the basis for grid construction and safe operation. Relatively speaking, DC mainly plays a role in transmission and has advantages in large-capacity and long-distance transmission.
The research shows that the construction of a "strong and strong" hybrid grid can give full play to the functions and advantages of AC and DC and ensure the safe, efficient and economical operation of the grid. If the UHV DC is likened to a deep-sea, ocean-going 10,000-ton ship, then the strong UHV AC synchronous power grid is a deep-water port that can ensure the smooth landing of the giant wheel. Large-capacity DC must rely on a strong UHV AC synchronous power grid to fully Exert its transmission capacity and guarantee the safe operation of the power grid.
According to the comprehensive study and judgment of China's energy development, China should build four simultaneous power grids of â€œThree Chinasâ€ (North China-Central China-East China), Northeast China, Northwest China, and South China. â€œSanhuaâ€ UHV Synchronous Power Grid will form an â€œstrong-strong-strongâ€ power grid structure, providing strong network support for the dozens of HVDC transmissions from the northeast, northwest and even neighboring countries to the â€œSanhuaâ€ power grid and can satisfy the â€œpower systemâ€. The requirements of the "Safety and Stability Guidelines" ensure the safe and stable operation of cross-regional power transmission and power systems in China.
In order to give full play to the role of the power grid in transforming power and energy development methods, China still needs to further promote the construction of smart grids.
Research shows that through the construction of a smart grid, a friendly interactive platform is established between the power source, the power grid and the users, guide users to use electricity rationally, reduce system abandonment, and abandon winds, and improve the overall and all-round operation efficiency and economy of the system; The scale development of electric vehicles provides an online service platform to reduce oil consumption in China's transportation industry, reduce the degree of foreign dependence on oil, and improve the level of energy supply security; it can also improve electricity through development and demand-side management of energy storage facilities such as electric vehicles. The load characteristics of the system will further increase the ability to absorb renewable energy such as wind power, increase the efficiency of coal-fired power generation, and reduce the level of coal consumption, creating a virtuous circle; in addition, the smart grid will promote new energy sources, new materials, information network technologies, and energy conservation and environmental protection. The development of the technology industry and emerging industries.
In short, China should speed up the implementation of the â€œOne Special Fourâ€ strategy, build a strong smart grid that uses the UHV grid as the backbone grid, and promote the intensive development of large coal-fired power stations, large hydropower stations, large nuclear power stations, and large-scale renewable energy bases. To increase the trans-provincial trans-provincial transmission capacity to a certain extent, eliminate the power shortage in some provinces and regions, and the phenomenon of electricity in some provinces and regions, and lay a foundation for fundamentally solving the problems of coal and electricity transportation that have long plagued China and regional power shortages.
Transmission is better than coal transportation In the current situation that the UHV transmission technology is mature, the railway transportation capacity is very tight, and the coal freight rate is rising rapidly, the development of cross-regional transmission has comprehensive social, economic and environmental benefits. Reporter: In the â€œTwelve Five Yearsâ€ This is a crucial period for the transformation of China's power development mode. The issue of coal power layout has attracted much attention. The issue of coal transmission or transmission has been plagued with endless disputes. Some people think that at present, China should focus on strengthening the comprehensive deployment of coal and electricity instead of tilting toward transmission. How do you view this issue?
Hu Zhaoguang: China's coal for power generation is mainly distributed in coal production areas in the west and north. It is a major issue for Chinaâ€™s energy development to transport coal to the east through railways or to transport coal to the east through the power grid.
Since the 1960s, coal transmission or transmission has always been the focus of attention from all walks of life. In recent years, due to the great changes in some of the boundary conditions such as the successful implementation of UHV transmission and the sharp rise in coal prices, the conclusion of comparative coal transmission has also changed. The State Grid Energy Research Institute conducts a comprehensive and systematic study of coal transmission and transmission. We believe that at present, UHV transmission technology has matured, the railway transportation capacity is very tight, and coal freight rates are rising rapidly. With comprehensive social, economic and environmental benefits, it mainly includes the following aspects:
First, solve the problem of coal and electricity transportation supply shortages. Accelerating the development of trans-regional transmission can enrich China's energy transportation methods and effectively relieve the pressure on railway transportation coal. For a long time, Chinaâ€™s over-reliance on coal transportation has brought great pressure on railway transportation. The unreasonable phenomenon of transporting coal on expressways has also intensified, and the problem of energy transportation safety has become increasingly serious. According to our research, by building a comprehensive energy transportation system for coal transportation and transmission, and increasing the proportion of trans-regional transmission in energy transmission, the current situation of serious overloading of railway coal transportation in the â€œThree Westâ€ region can be fundamentally changed. By 2020, the ratio of coal transmission in the â€œThree Westâ€ region can be increased from the current 20:1 to 4:1, and the utilization rate of major railway coal transportation channels can be reduced to around 80%, which is at a more reasonable level of utilization.
Second, reduce the cost of electricity supply. According to our calculation, UHV AC/DC transmission in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Mengning New Area will be used to transmit power to the central and eastern regions of China. The landing electricity price to the recipient grid will be 0.06-0.13 yuan/kWh lower than the on-grid tariff of the coal price benchmark at the receiving end. By developing trans-regional transmission, the cost of power supply in the central and eastern regions can be significantly reduced. In addition, through the development of large-scale coal-electricity-integrated coal pits, the supply of coal is guaranteed and the price is stable, which can guarantee the reasonable profitability of coal-fired power generation.
Third, promote energy restructuring and energy conservation and emission reduction. By strengthening cross-regional large-scale power grid construction, we can expand the scale of development of clean energy such as wind power and the range of consumption, reduce the proportion of coal in China's energy structure, and promote energy structure adjustment and energy conservation and emission reduction. Research shows that through the construction of UHV cross-regional transmission corridors and a strong, highly synchronized power grid, the scale of wind power development in China in 2020 can be increased from 90 million kilowatts to over 150 million kilowatts. In addition, UHV power transmission plays an important role in the large-scale development and efficient use of southwest hydropower and future solar power generation.
Fourth, it can promote the optimal allocation of environmental resources throughout the country. At present, the problem of acid rain in the central and eastern regions of China is serious, and there is basically no further development of the coal and electricity environment. Research shows that the deployment of more coal-fired power plants in the western region can greatly reduce sulfur dioxide emissions in the central and eastern regions. Through the development of advanced technologies such as clean coal, the pollutant discharge in the western region can be effectively controlled, and the eastern region of China is economically developed. The population density is high, and the same environmental pollution causes much higher economic losses than in the western region. According to our research, placing more coal-fired power plants in the western region will reduce environmental losses by 4.5 billion yuan nationwide by 2020.
Fifth, promote the coordinated development of the regional economy. Compared with the direct delivery of coal, the construction of a coal-fired electricity base in the western region and the transmission of electricity can extend the industrial chain for the development and utilization of local coal, transform the local resource advantages into economic advantages, and promote the rapid economic and social development of the western region. According to our research, taking Shanxi Province as an example, the ratio of the two energy transmission methods of coal transportation and transmission to local GDP is about 1:6, and the employment-pull effect ratio is about 1:2.
Sixth, reduce the occupation of land resources. The coal transport corridors occupy all the land in the corridor, and the power transmission corridor is the â€œskyway of energy transmissionâ€. The land under the corridor can also be used. Studies have shown that under the same volume of transmission, the UHV AC transmission channel covers an area of â€‹â€‹only 1/4-1/2 of that of the Iron Sea Union transport coal channel. In addition, accelerating the development of trans-regional transmission can reduce the occupation of high-value land in the central and eastern regions. According to our research, the development of cross-regional power transmission by 2020 can save more than 5,000 hectares of land for the central and eastern regions.
Reporter: Some people point out that the monopoly of the grid management system is one of the reasons for the lack of electricity. What is your opinion on this?
Hu Zhaoguang: Just now I have analyzed the basic reasons for the lack of electricity. I think there is no connection between the two.
Since we talk about the grid management system, we should have an objective understanding of the grid's integrated management system. The power grid has the technical and economic characteristics of large investment, strong asset-specific attributes, and tight network interconnection. It is a typical natural monopoly business. Therefore, implementing an integrated operation on the grid is the lowest cost institutional arrangement. From the international practice, we can see that the countries that have implemented the reform of the electricity market still maintain the integrated operation of the grid, which is determined by the objective laws of the grid development.
In China, the power grid is an important infrastructure of the country. It is not only a platform for providing reliable power supply to the economy and society, but also a platform for optimizing the allocation of energy resources. The safe operation of the power grid is of utmost importance. Integrated operation is the institutional basis for ensuring safe operation of the power grid. . The integrated operation of the power grid enables the overall planning of power grids at all levels, the unified formulation of technical standards, the centralized dispatching operation and management, the coordinated handling of accidents and emergency response, the protection of safe operation of the power grid, and the reduction in planning, standards, and optimization of power grids at all levels. The coordination costs of resources, dispatch operations, accident handling, etc., and reduce overall operating costs of the grid through resource sharing.
Of course, the grid companies under the integrated management system should take the initiative to accept government supervision, and strive to improve operating efficiency and reduce service costs by continuously improving the enterprise management mechanism and management level.
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