Li Bingjie: LED will not be oversupply in 2010

The LED industry is expanding rapidly, causing market chips to fear supply and demand imbalances. Li Bingjie, chairman of the LED chip leading plant Jingyuan Optoelectronics, said that the current order visibility can be seen in the first quarter, and customer demand can be seen at the end of the year, he believes that 2010 LEDs will not have an oversupply problem in the year. As for the situation in 2011, we must observe the market demand in the second half of 2010. If the penetration rate of LED TV reaches 35% at the end of the year, there will be no supply imbalance in 2011.

Li Bingjie participated in the foreign investment forum on the 16th. He said that because the current LED chip production capacity is not much, and after the chip is produced, it takes about 3 months to complete the process and it will be delivered in the market. The chip is provided to the end market demand in June, calculated by capacity and process. In 2010, LED will not be oversupply.

Li Bingjie pointed out that he personally watched the market development of LED TV, and the supply of LED chips in the second quarter of 2010 will be the tightest in the whole year. The supply and demand in the second to third quarters are still expected to remain tight, with the second half of the year. With new capacity available, the LED supply for the fourth quarter is expected to be slightly loose.

Li Bingjie pointed out that if the penetration rate is only about 5% at the beginning of 2010, the shipment penetration rate of LED TV will be at least 35% before the end of the year, and the annual penetration rate will reach the market target of 20% penetration rate. At the end of the year, 35% penetration rate was successfully achieved. In 2011, the problem of LED oversupply will not occur.

Li Bingjie said that the current industry estimates that the LED TV penetration rate in 2010 is about 20%, and the penetration rate in 2011 is about 30%. Therefore, it will be considered that the LED production capacity will exceed supply in 2011, but he replied that if the penetration rate has reached 35% by the end of 2010, then In 2011, the penetration rate is unlikely to fall back. Even in 2011, the penetration rate should be increased to 40~45%, which is much higher than the original expected penetration rate of 30%.

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