Unemployment timeline: When will robots really replace human workers?

According to Futurism, as many institutes have predicted, we are moving toward the global automation factory. Most experts believe that the rise of automation has become irresistible. For example, studies released by Oxford University and Oxford Martin College in 2013 showed that 47% of jobs in the United States will be replaced by automation in the next 20 years. Forrester also believes that by 2025, 7% of US jobs will be automated.
The United States is not the only country that focuses on automation trends. The Brookfield Institute of Innovation and Entrepreneurship predicts that 40 percent of Canadian jobs will be replaced by machines in 10 to 20 years. At the same time, the UK’s 850,000 jobs will be replaced by automation 2030 years ago. The ILO released a report saying that in the next 20 years, 137 million people in Southeast Asia will be unemployed due to automation. All of these studies seem to give the same time frame, and automation will have a serious impact on the job market. However, two recent studies show that the impact of automation will not come so quickly. The McKinsey Global Institute predicts that the pace of machine-led factories will be slower than people think and will progress in a gradual manner. The McKinsey Institute conducted more than 2,000 surveys on more than 800 jobs and predicted which jobs will be replaced by automation. The time is ripe for which jobs are automated. Their conclusion shows that only 5% of the work can be completely replaced by the "currently demonstrated" automation technology. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OCED) also issued a report in 2016, claiming that on average only 9% of its 21 member states may be replaced by automation. James Manyika, director of the McKinsey Institute, pointed out: "This process may take several decades to complete. How automation affects employment cannot be measured simply by what technology can be used." Other factors include the economy and the government. Regulatory, social attitudes to new technologies, etc. According to estimates by the McKinsey Institute, as soon as 2055, half of the world's work may be automated. But all reports have the consensus that factory automation is doomed to happen, and in some cases, this trend has begun, such as Wal-Mart, Amazon retail stores Amazon Go, Japan Life Insurance Company and Barclays Bank, not to mention Say the rise of driverless cars. From the factory to the office, all walks of life will experience the automation of replacing human workers. To suppress this kind of development is obviously not the right behavior.
In the end, automation will be a good thing. In the long run, the global economy will benefit from it, so we don’t have to worry about when automation will occur, but we should focus on how to help those who are deeply affected by automation. Taking government agencies as an example, it is very important to participate in this process by formulating policies. A policy that addresses automation issues is particularly concerned with providing citizens with universal basic income, and some countries are already experimenting with this approach to see if they can help solve future unemployment problems. At the same time, the U.S. government proposed increasing investment in education to deal with automation. Whether automation reaches a critical point in 2025, 2030, or 2055, we already have time to prepare and adjust. For this reason, continuous research by institutions such as the McKinsey Institute and OCED will also help us find the best solution. .

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