Smart watches can't be epoch-making products

Although Google, Motorola and Samsung are eager to enter the wearable market, Apple still does not move. In fact, Apple's approach is sensible.

Smart watches and wristbands with sensors are not new products. It is important to know that Microsoft introduced SPOT smart watches in 2004. However, the market is still blowing up a wearable device boom. Since the tablet wave in January 2011 (at the 2011 CES show in Las Vegas, exhibitors released 76 tablets), we have seen a new wave of popularity again.

News about wearable products continues to emerge. Samsung said that the system used in its smart watch products will transition from Android to TIzen; Google also released Android Wear, a new operating system for smart watches; Motorola, which is about to become a Lenovo brand, announced that Moto 360 will be officially released in the summer of 2014.

Why are you so anxious? Cook described wearable as "an important branch on the big tree." Is this Apple's "smoke bomb" for misleading competitors?

A lot of questions are waiting for answers.

The first question is: What is the mission of smart watches?

In the case of mobile phones, operators use mobile phones to increase their average revenue per user (ARPU); ordinary consumers see mobile phones as small, personal computers that can be carried around and kept connected.

Is the smartphone model suitable for smart watches? We can almost ignore operators because smart watches are less likely to contribute revenue to operators.

For users, smart watches can collect sensor data, connect to our smartphones, display notifications, respond to touch and voice commands, and even tell us the time. These are all useful features of smart watches, but as the user's freshness fades, smart watches need to implement more features, such as telling us the weather and who is calling the smartphone in our pocket, not just It is to record how many miles we ran. In other words, because smartphones have very powerful features and massive applications, we are willing to pay extra for them. So, are we willing to spend a lot of money on smart watches in the future?

Also, who can wear a watch when the smartphone can display time? Some young people don't wear watches at all, and some people who are old are just looking at watches as decorations. How many people who like to wear a watch will always wear the same style of watch? Many of us have at least one watch and will wear different watches on different occasions. I am not looking for embarrassment, this is a problem that mobile device manufacturers and marketers need to overcome.

The next question is: How do manufacturers balance the computing power and battery life of smart watches?

With improved functionality, improved screens and user interfaces, smart watches require more computing power, which consumes more power. If the power of the smart watch is exhausted in one day, can we accept it? In order to extend the battery life of a smart watch to 24 hours or longer, will the designer slow down the pace of perfecting the smart watch function, or increase the size of the smart watch, just like a miniature mobile phone?

Battery life issues are the reason for Samsung's transition to TIzen, and Google's Android Wear is aware of this, but neither company has announced more information about battery life.

The final question is: Will smart watches become a huge business?

Pebble CEO Eric Migicovsky has said that since January 2013, the company has sold 400,000 smart watches. At $150 each, Pebble earned $60 million, and Mikikovsky has always been optimistic about the future of wearables.

But even if you multiply this number by 10, for Samsung, Motorola/Lenovo or Apple, the income is still too small, which means that smart watches can only become a subsidiary of smart phones, and will not become a $10 billion business.

The above challenges may be the reason why Apple has not launched a smart watch product. The smart watch is destined to be an extension of the ecosystem and will not be an epoch-making product.

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